Thai Democratic Movement in Scandinavia - ขบวนการประชาธิปไตยไทยในสแกนดิเนเวีย
fredag 19 april 2024
The conflict between Israel and Iran
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the US was not involved in last night's Israeli attack on Iran. This is reported by international news agencies.
The statement was made at a press conference after the G7 meeting in Capri, Italy. At the same time, Blinken chose not to comment on the claims that Israel had warned the US about the attack.
- I am not going to comment on that, apart from the comment that the US did not participate in any offensive operation, he said.
Earlier, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani stated that the US behind closed doors informed the G7 ministers that they had received a last-minute warning from Israel.
Israel's Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, from the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, is under fire after he openly suggested that Israel was behind last night's attack on Iran.
On X, Ben-Gvir wrote a word after the attack: "Scarecrow!", which according to AFP is Hebrew slang for "weak". It can also be interpreted as something like "much ado about nothing". Ben-Gvir has been advocating a tough attack on Iran all week.
The news agency writes that the minister is now being accused from several quarters of harming Israeli security interests. One critic is opposition leader Yair Lapid who believes that Ben-Gvir both confirms and mocks Israel's operations.
American and Israeli media have stated that Israel carried out the attack, but no formal confirmation is expected from Israel.
While Israel continues to remain silent, a debate has flared up in the country about whether the limited attack is a strong enough message, writes Bloomberg.
Sources describe overnight Israeli strikes against Iran as limited in scope. Several reports mention that Israel used a smaller number of drones with less explosive power than the larger and more expensive robots at their disposal, TT writes.
- The attack was intended to signal to Iran that Israel has the ability to strike inside the country, an Israeli source told The Washington Post.
The attack appears to have targeted Isfahan province, which is the center of the country's nuclear technology.
Iran has stated that the nuclear facilities are undamaged, which is also confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA.
Israel has not officially commented on the attack, but American, Israeli and Iranian sources have confirmed that it took place.
Both have flexed their muscles - the round is over
Iran
Israel's modest revenge opens the door to other threats
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 12.07
Clouds of smoke over Isfahan in Iran after the attack.
Image in social media that is said to show clouds of smoke over Isfahan. Photo: From Telegram
If this was Israel's revenge against Iran, it was far milder than even the greatest pacifists had hoped for.
For now, a major war in the region appears to have been averted.
But it is too early to breathe a sigh of relief.
Quick version
First, Israel attacks Iran's consulate in Damascus. Either a deliberate provocation or a miscalculation.
Iran responds with a massive missile attack on Israel. The first time you directly attack your arch-enemy instead of going through proxy groups like Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and the Huthi rebels in Yemen, as before.
Israel vows revenge. But when it comes, they don't even officially take responsibility for the attack last night against a military base outside Isfahan in Iran.
Iran plays down the Israeli counterattack. Points out that no one was killed and that nothing of value was destroyed. It is said that it was not even an Israeli attack but that it was carried out from Iranian territory.
It is a strange diplomatic dance the world has witnessed in recent days.
From extremely high tension with a seemingly imminent risk of a major war in the Middele East to a sudden de-escalation where both sides say they have no plans to attack the other.
Iran has had to show its people, its allies and even its enemies in the Arab world that it has the ability to directly attack Israel. But it was done in full confidence that Israel's air defenses would make the damage very limited.
Israel felf compelled to respond with a direct attack on Iranian territory but apparently bowed to pressure from the United States in particular to stay at a level that did not further escalate the conflict.
Plus Israel has its own interest in not opening a second front in the war against Hamas.
Netanyahu may also have listened to those who said that Israel should take advantage of the new sympathies it has received in the world due to the Iranian attack.
Israel has long sought to establish an international alliance to isolate Iran. Iran's attack appears to have accomplished something similar.
As recently as yesterday, the EU decided to target new sanctions against Iran.
Both Iran and Israel seem satisfied with what they have achieved. They have sent their signals. They have flexed their muscles for the other side.
But this round is over.
Now they can go back to the proxy war that has been going on for decades. Neither of them wants a major war.
So is everything calm now? Can we sleep well at night?
Well, the danger of a major war may have decreased for the time being, but the Middle East continues to be a powder keg.
According to information in the british BBC, Israel settled for a very limited attack because Prime Minister Netanyahu would have received the go-ahead from President Biden to carry out a ground offensive in Rafah in Gaza, where Hamas' remaining militiamen and leaders are believed to be hiding.
I find it hard to believe that is true considering how hard Biden has gone public and warned of a ground offensive where the civilian population would be hit hard.
But Netanyahu certainly hasn't given up on plans for a ground offensive to crush what's left of Hamas and hopefully get some of the hostages out alive.
When the emergency situation with Iran now appears to be over, Israel can once again concentrate on Gaza. Nobody knows if and when there will be an offensive, but the Gaza war is definitely not over.
However, the reduced tension with Iran may lead to the resumption of negotiations on a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. They have been going on for months without yielding any results because both Hamas and Israel have refused to give in to their demands.
Perhaps the conditions have now changed.
But Netanyahu has also taken a major domestic political risk by not cracking down harder on Iran. The right-wing elements within his own government will strongly criticize the Prime Minister for not seizing the opportunity. They had wanted to see Israeli bombings against Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel is convinced that Iran is only months away from developing its own nuclear weapons. Something that is seen as an existential threat because the mullahs in Tehran have as stated goal to wipe out the Jewish state.
A bomb attack on the nuclear facilities would have slowed Iran's plans.
Now the extreme right will instead increase the pressure on Netanyahu to crush Hamas once and for all.
The settler parties have a hold on the prime minister. If they leave the government, Netanyahu is forced to resign.
In the meantime, the outside world can at least breathe a sigh of relief for a while. A taboo has been broken by Iran and Israel directly attacking each other.
Very little suggests that it cannot happen again.
5 points re: Israel's supposed attack on Iran
Iran
Nivette Dawod
Updated 10.37 | Published 08.44
Israel is said to have attacked Iran during the night of Friday, April 19.
It is believed to be retaliation against Iran's attack on Israel last weekend.
1. Several explosions in Iran
Several explosions were reported overnight Friday inside Iran, near the city of Isfahan where there is both an air base and a nuclear reactor. American sources state that it is Israeli missiles that have hit targets in Iran. Iran states that "no major damage occurred".
2. Retaliation
According to American sources, this is supposed to be retaliation from Israel after Iran's attack last weekend, when over 300 drones and robots were sent against Israel. Several media outlets state that the US should have been warned by Israel, but was not involved in the attack.
3. Escalation
Tensions rose after Iran's consulate in Syria was attacked in early April. Israel is accused of carrying out the attack, in which several high-ranking Iranian military personnel were killed. When Iran responded last weekend with its full-scale attack on Israel, it was the first time Iran directly attacked Israel.
4. Escalated rhetoric
Israel vowed after Iran's attack to "extract a price". Iran, in turn, has warned that Israeli action will be met with even tougher responses. During Friday morning, Iranian sources toned down the rhetoric somewhat and signaled that the country will not respond to Israel militarily at this time.
5. The outside world is worried
Many countries have expressed concern about the escalation and urged both parties to exercise restraint. The escalation increases the risk of a wider regional conflict, which would have profound consequences for both global security and political stability in the region.
1 / 2Photo: From Telegram